Thursday, March 18, 2010

More on the score

12:30pm: Here is the text of the CBO score....digesting, off to teach class..... Ezra Klein latest.

Ezra Klein has more on the score....he has typically had details before they were public. $130 Billion in deficit reduction in first 10, $1.3 Trillion over combined first 20 years, 32 Million covered by 2019 who would otherwise be uninsured, putting us at 95% coverage for those in the country legally. More as details emerge.

Interesting op-ed by Marjorie Margoles-Mezvinsky who cast what was understood to be the 218th vote for President Clinton's first budget (also known as what gave us the tax code the last time we had a balanced budget). She reflects on losing and says the Dems need to vote what they think is correct. Yep.

Update 10:45am. Politico saying key change in the reconciliation side car is indexing the tax on high cost health insurance by the inflation and not inflation plus 1 point. Keep in mind that health care costs are going up by triple inflation or more in some years. Even with the delay in the high cost tax, the Senate bill high cost tax is being indexed for the first 10 years of the bill (as written by CPI plus 1 point). The reconciliation parts fall away after 10 years (why the tax cuts are running out next year and in 2013) and then the high cost insurance tax will come online in year 11, and if it is indexed for a decade at inflation, it will hit a great proportion of private insurance plans....effectively capping the tax exclusion of employer paid insurance, my hunch is at less than the mean. This is 10 years a big change in coming...I have hopes that we will get rid of the tax exclusion explicitly at some point in the next 10 years, but if not, this is a pretty big long range reduciton of the exlcusion, even though its effect in the first 10 years is quite muted. In short, this cost saving aspect is much stronger in the second 10 years than in the first 10 years.

Update 2, 12:25pm. Subsidies for private insurance are also slowed to grow at inflation on longer run (meaning after 2020). This also increased cost savings in second decade.

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