Is just out today and this will be important. Quick read is that the 160 Million in large group and small group market today will see very small decreases in premiums (1.5% and 0.5%) in 2016. For individual purchase market, the short version is that two things will happen: (1) premiums will be higher for (2) substantially better insurance....with better defined by covering more services and having higher actuarial value....which means amount of costs that insured pay out of pocket. Roughly, 10% higher premiums for better coverage (need to get straight how much better). Then people will get income based subsidy (around 6 in 10 folks buying in this market will get some subsidy).
So, CBO says premiums down (a little( for the 160 Million with employer based cover today. For the uninsured, their ranks will be reduced, and the total premium paid will be higher than that paid by the 14 Million now covered in the individual market....but the insurance will be more expansive. And many will get premium support.
This will be spun every which a way.....I also need to read it more carefully and will later comment more.
Update: NY Times early take. Ezra Klein weighs in.